Press · Data release · October 2026
Nearly 3 in 10 Victorians switching from gas hot water start looking only once it breaks
New PumpSwap data shows most Victorian heat pump enquiries now come from gas homes, and many arrive in a breakdown, months before the federal discount cut and the state’s scheduled gas replacement rules.
Nearly three in ten Victorian homeowners looking to replace gas hot water with a heat pump only start searching once their system is already broken or failing, according to new data from PumpSwap, the Australian heat pump hot water comparison site.
PumpSwap’s analysis of heat pump hot water quote requests between April and October 2026 found that 72 per cent of Victorian requests came from homes replacing gas, the highest share of any large state. Of those Victorian gas homes, 29 per cent told PumpSwap their system was broken or failing at the time they asked for quotes.
The timing matters. On 1 January 2027, the federal discount on heat pump water heaters steps down, which for a typical system means a few hundred dollars less off the price. And under rules due to start on 1 March 2027, a gas hot water unit that fails in an existing Victorian home is set to require an electric replacement. Whatever happens to those rules, a system that fails without warning leaves households choosing under pressure.
“A hot water system that dies on a cold morning is the worst time to make a decision worth a few thousand dollars,” said PumpSwap founder Joshua James. “Our data shows a big share of Victorians are already making the switch from gas in a breakdown. With the discount dropping on 1 January, the households that plan ahead will pay less and choose better.”
Victoria leads the move away from gas
Share of heat pump hot water quote requests coming from homes replacing gas, April to October 2026:
| State | Share replacing gas |
|---|---|
| Victoria | 72% |
| Western Australia | 54% |
| South Australia | 40% |
| New South Wales | 35% |
| Queensland | 18% |
Nationally, half of all heat pump hot water requests came from gas homes, and close to four in ten homeowners (38 per cent) said their current system was broken or failing when they asked for quotes.
What homeowners can do now
- Check the age of the hot water system. Gas storage systems typically last 8 to 12 years; if yours is 6 or older, start planning.
- Get quotes before the system fails, while there is time to compare. Our Victorian gas hot water calculator estimates how long a gas system has left.
- Check current rebates: our heat pump hot water rebates page lists every rebate in Australia with the official source for each.
About the data
Based on heat pump hot water quote requests made through PumpSwap.com.au between April and October 2026. Current system type and urgency are as reported by the homeowner. State figures cover states with enough requests for a meaningful share.
About PumpSwap
PumpSwap.com.au is an independent Australian comparison site for heat pump hot water. Homeowners get up to three free quotes from local installers. PumpSwap is paid by installers, never by homeowners.
Media contact: Josh James, Founder, josh@pumpswap.com.au. Please credit “PumpSwap” and link to this page when using these figures.